TDP, PRP Can Forget Getting Majority
While it is not sure what the voter has decided but then all parties have been pinning their hopes on power. Surprisingly, the main parties are expressing confidence that victory will be theirs. While TDP is boasting about ‘Nagadhu Badili..’, PRP is talking about ‘Saamajika Nyayam’, all meetings saw crowds in huge numbers and due to this all parties are turning the outcome to their favor and are calculating their own numbers. But then, how true is their observation about getting single majority and how deeply have they analyzed their strengths and weaknesses for each seat is the question.
Practically speaking, there is no way that PRP can get absolute majority and so it is now upto TDP or Congress. TDP has declared that they would get 160 seats comfortably but then they have contested only for 220 and getting 160 from that is quite difficult. If there was an anti government wave or pro –TDP situation then it was possible, but that is not to be seen. In first phase, the fight was on for 154 seats in Telangana and north Andhra but the effect of Mahakootami was felt only in Telangana. This has got 119 assembly seats out of which TRS had 44, communists had 17 and TDP fought in only 58 seats. Even if TDP manages 30-40 seats from Telangana, north Andhra had 31 seats. So if TDP wins say 15 seats then the total will go max between 50-55 seats only. So to get majority, they have to win 90-100 seats from the remaining 128 assembly seats in the second phase of polling. This is a highly impossible task. Districts like Adilabad, Karimnagar, Warangal etc have got TRS contesting from 26 places while TDP had only 18. Similarly, places like Khammam, Nalgonda had the strong communists fighting in 15 spots while TDP had only 7. So winning 25 seats is ruled out for TDP. In north Andhra, TDP got weak with few key leaders shifting to PRP so out of the 31 seats, many say that winning even 10 seats will be difficult for TDP. Chiru effect is said to be high in north Andhra.
In the second phase, Krishna, dual Godavari will have Chiru effect and this time Lok Satta also poses threat to TDP in Krishna and Guntur. Rayalaseema has got PRP giving tough fight to TDP. So out of 128 seats that TDP has fought, even if they win half of them it will be considered a great achievement, as per experts. Under this situation, it is very hard for TDP to get absolute majority. Coming to Mahakootami, TRS says they will surely get 25 seats and 4-5 more from other areas. Communists will not get even 10 in Telangana as per reports. According to a senior communist leader, CPI-3, CPM-4 seems to be the only chance. So out of the 154 seats in the first phase, if MK could get upto 80-90 seats and in the second phase, they would have to get about 60-70 from the coastal belt. Only then a majority is possible.
Coming to PRP, they have given up in Telangana and see some chances in north Andhra. In first phase, getting 15-20 seats also is difficult as per sources. In second phase, they might get upto 25 seats which are also with great difficulty but totally they cannot cross more than 50. so majority for PRP is a miracle only. When it comes to Congress, if they score 70-80 during first phase then they have to win same amount in second phase also to get majority. In Telangana, there are 119 seats out of which 29 are in Hyderabad and Ranga Reddy. If 7-8 go to Majlis , Congress is expecting to take at least 15 seats here. And since TRS is claiming at least 25 out of the 44 seats, it means that congress has chance to get the rest. Also, if TRS-Communists take 15 seats then Congress says that they will win 8 approximately. If Congress manages 40-50 seats in Telangana and minimum 34 in north Andhra then they would get up to 70 seats in phase 1. There are 52 seats in Rayalaseema so they are confident of winning 35 seats there. Out of the 88 seats in southern coastal belt, even if Congress wins half then they would be in a position to stake majority.
While this is the expecting count, the real result will be out on May 16th and that would give the full and final outcome of all the fates of the parties.
More AP 2009 Elections Results Live News
1.http://www.chiru.in
2.http://www.apelections2009.in/
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